Saturday, July 28, 2007

History Repeating...


There has been no shortage of coverage regarding the Pakistani Army's storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Scant attention in the press has been paid, however, to whom the militants inside actually were. Its an instructive story.

According to the BBC, many belonged to the allegedly defuct militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad. The group was founded by Maulana Masood Azhar, a man with a long history of violent behaviour. By the late 90s, he was securely behind bars in India, jailed for terrorist activities in Kashmir. But all of that changed in December of 1999, when Indian Airlines flight 814 was hijacked by 5 Pakistani nationals, and ultimately ended up at Taliban-controlled Kandahar Airport. After one of the passengers was stabbed to death, Azhar and two of his jailed comrades were released as a capitulation to the hijackers' demands, and the hijackers dissapeared into Afghansitan.

By 2000, with support of the Pakistani ISI, Azhar's new militant group was up and running in Kashmir. That fit well with the foreign policy objectives of Pakistan's new President, General Pervez Musharraf. As army chief, his credibility had been damaged during the Kargil conflict. Now he was following an age-old strategy, happily supporting violent and fanatical men provided they were only doing violent and fanatical things to the appropriate people.

The Americans had used a similar strategy in their support of the Afghan mujahadeen against the Soviet Union. One suspects they might have reconsidered the wisdom of that plan after some of those very same mujahadeen planned the September 11 attacks. At any rate, if they had any sympathy for Musharraf's strategy, it faded when Azhar's group was linked to a bloody attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. Under American pressure, Pakistan placed Azhar under house arrest for a year and then let him go. Jaish-e-Mohammad seemed to bite the hand the fed it, increasingly humiliating the Musharraf government and challenging its ability to control its own capital city. Finally forced to act, the isolated President is now running out of domestic allies.

Naturally, a Pakistani security official complained to the BBC that the militancy was spawned by lack of goverment support for the group.
"Whenever the state suddenly withdraws its support from such
groups, they tend to splinter"
As for the embattled President, he's suddenly discovered the need to find allies. His old adversaries may be willing to come back into fold for the right price, but he also needs to woo his old friends. His argument to the West will be simple...he will portray himself as the only bulwark against a radical Islamic takeover of the country. He will promise to fight back against the extremists, just like he did at the Red Mosque.

In other words, our leaders will be asked to support a brutal dictator because he promises to be brutal with the appropriate people. I'm curious to know if President Musharraf has ever considered how well that strategy worked for him. And I'm curious to know if our leaders will consider the lessons of history before they decide what to do. I'm not optimistic.


Sunday, July 1, 2007

Happy Canada Day!


Just a quick post to wish the nation a Happy Canada Day. Despite all of our challenges, I think our accomplishments over 140 years have been quite extraordinary. I wish a pleasant and safe celebration to everyone.